Introduction
Effective problem-solving in real-world contexts necessitates both diligence and focus because genuine issues are often complex and multi-layered. Unlike tidy textbook problems, real-world challenges involve numerous variables, stakeholders with differing perspectives, and unforeseen obstacles. This complexity makes it difficult to immediately pinpoint causes or predict outcomes. Hence, superficial approaches rarely lead to effective solutions.
Diligence is crucial in navigating these complexities. It means approaching problems with persistent effort, thoroughly gathering information, and rigorously analysing the situation. Diligence guards against the temptation to accept easy answers or make assumptions based on incomplete data. It urges digging beneath surface-level symptoms to uncover the deeper root causes. Without diligent investigation and follow-through, important details get overlooked, resulting in inadequate solutions.
Focus is equally important. Real-world problems often generate a deluge of information and present numerous potential pathways. Focus allows problem-solvers to avoid distractions and the temptation to chase tangential issues. By concentrating on the key issues, one ensures that efforts are not diluted across peripheral concerns. This targeted approach helps to achieve meaningful results within available resources.
Ultimately, diligence and focus work together to enable effective problem-solving. Diligence keeps you committed to thoroughly understanding and addressing the problem, while focus ensures that your energy remains directed towards the most critical issues.
Uncertainty, ambiguity and cognitive miserliness
Uncertainty and ambiguity complicate the decision-making process. Uncertainty arises when the outcomes of choices are unpredictable or when information is incomplete, making it difficult to foresee the consequences of decisions. Ambiguity occurs when elements of the problem itself (e.g., goals, relevant data, or available options) are unclear or open to multiple interpretations.
When faced with uncertainty and ambiguity, decision-makers often struggle to identify which factors are most important, what information to trust, and which solutions are viable. Cognitive biases like anchoring and confirmation bias further distort judgment, making it harder to navigate complexity.
Cognitive miserliness is a concept in psychology describing the tendency for individuals to conserve mental effort and avoid engaging in deep or complex thinking unless necessary. Instead of carefully analysing information or thoroughly examining a problem, a cognitive miser relies on shortcuts, heuristics, and superficial assessments to arrive at a decision quickly and with minimal mental strain. While this approach can be efficient in routine situations, it poses significant obstacles to effective problem-solving when confronted with complex, uncertain and ambiguous issues.
A cognitive miser may still be willing to invest substantial effort if they are convinced that the payoff is worthwhile. However, when uncertainty and ambiguity are present, many struggle to judge whether investing time and mental resources is worthwhile. They become overwhelmed by unclear information, conflicting evidence, or unpredictable outcomes, leading to reluctance in committing the necessary effort. Without the ability to cope with these complexities, their default is to revert to minimal processing and quick decisions rather than fully engaging with the complexity of a situation.
Ultimately, many people are bad at solving problems not because they lack diligence or intelligence, but because they struggle with uncertainty and ambiguity. To become effective problem-solvers, individuals need to develop the ability to tolerate and work through uncertain and ambiguous situations, employing critical thinking, open-mindedness, and a willingness to learn from both successes and failures.
Diligence and focus amid uncertainty and ambiguity
Effective problem-solving hinges on a simple principle: identify the core issues and address them with diligence and focus. However, when problems are clouded by uncertainty and ambiguity, individuals often hesitate to commit fully to the problem-solving process. This lack of commitment is often due to cognitive miserliness, where people instinctively avoid investing significant mental effort when payoffs are unclear. Such reluctance contributes to superficial solutions that do not adequately address the problem.
It is worth noting that the motivation and commitment of individuals can also be influenced by the organization’s processes and culture. Ultimately, effective problem-solving is a shared responsibility between individuals and the organization. In this article, we focus on individuals rather than organizations to limit the scope of discussion. Our recommendations are as follows:
- Acknowledge the role of luck
- Defend decisions with sound reasoning
- Collaborate effectively
- Prioritize key issues
- Control the controllables
- Move forward with “good enough”
- Build uncertainty and ambiguity tolerance
R1: Acknowledge the role of luck
Outcome bias refers to the tendency to judge the quality of a decision based solely on its result, rather than on the soundness of the reasoning that led to it. This frequently observed cognitive bias is problematic because it overlooks the role of uncertainty and ambiguity inherent in complex problem-solving situations. A good decision based on available information and a solid process can still lead to a poor outcome due to factors beyond one’s control. Conversely, a bad decision can sometimes yield a positive result purely by chance.
Shifting the focus from outcome-based judgment to process-based evaluation is essential for fostering realistic expectations and effective problem-solving. When individuals and organizations evaluate efforts based on the quality of the process, such as the thoroughness of analysis, appropriateness of the methods, and adaptability in response to new information, they create an environment where learning and improvement are possible. This approach acknowledges that mistakes and wasted efforts are inevitable parts of the exploration process.
Recognizing that such setbacks stem from the nature of the problem, rather than from flawed decisions or incompetence, is crucial. If individuals believe that only successful outcomes are valued or that mistakes are a sign of failure, they become reluctant to explore, experiment, or take risks. This reluctance stifles creativity, innovation, and progress, dooming the entire problem-solving effort before it begins. By valuing process over outcome and accepting missteps as learning opportunities, individuals can build the resilience and adaptability needed to tackle complex challenges.
R2: Defend decisions with sound reasoning
Decision-makers often experience the fear of making mistakes (FOMM), a powerful psychological barrier that can shape organizational culture and individual behaviour. This fear arises from concerns about personal or professional repercussions, such as blame, loss of credibility, or negative impact on one’s career. FOMM is intensified in environments that place excessive emphasis on flawless outcomes and punish errors, rather than rewarding effort, learning, and thoughtful risk-taking.
FOMM discourages experimentation and innovation by pushing individuals to rely on established tried-and-tested methods. When people are afraid to make mistakes, they avoid trying new approaches or challenging conventional wisdom. This fosters a cycle of stagnation, where the same solutions are applied repeatedly, even if they are no longer effective. As the saying goes: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
Additionally, FOMM leads to procrastination and inaction. Individuals may endlessly gather information, overthink possibilities, and delay decisions in an attempt to avoid mistakes. Such analysis paralysis prevents timely action and can cause opportunities to be missed. FOMM also triggers avoidance through psychological defence mechanisms such as denial, rationalization, or shifting responsibility. People may avoid confronting difficult problems altogether, preferring not to engage rather than risk being wrong.
To overcome FOMM, individuals should learn to defend their decisions with justified, clear, and easy-to-understand reasoning. By articulating the rationale behind their choices, such as outlining the information considered, the alternatives weighed, and the logic employed, they show that decisions were made thoughtfully and responsibly. This transparency not only increases confidence in decision-making but also facilitates constructive dialogue and support from others.
The importance of clear and easy-to-understand justifications cannot be overstated. When reasoning is straightforward, others can evaluate the decision process objectively, reducing misunderstandings and unnecessary criticism. It also enables learning from mistakes, as the process can be reviewed and improved. Cultivating this practice encourages a culture where thoughtful risk-taking and learning are valued, helping individuals and organizations move beyond the limitations imposed by the fear of making mistakes.
R3: Collaborate effectively
An individual’s perspective is inherently limited by personal experiences, knowledge and biases. This restricted insight can result in overlooking important aspects of an issue. Gathering input from others is therefore invaluable, as it brings diverse viewpoints, expertise, and experiences to bear on the problem. By obtaining a range of perspectives, individuals can uncover elements of the problem they might not have considered or cannot see from their own vantage point.
Collaborating with others not only broadens the pool of information but also contributes to more confident decision-making. When decisions are made collectively, there is greater opportunity for critical evaluation, reality checks, and creative solutions. The exchange of ideas allows for a more thorough assessment of risks, alternatives, and potential outcomes. Consensus or support from others also bolsters confidence, as the rationale behind decisions is tested and validated through constructive dialogue.
Despite these benefits, several issues can hinder individuals from seeking input from others. Social dynamics such as fear of appearing incompetent, reluctance to admit hesitancy, or concern over losing authority may prevent people from reaching out. Additionally, commonly observed cognitive biases can cause individuals to undermine the value of others’ input. Anchoring leads individuals to rely too heavily on their initial beliefs or information, making them less receptive to new perspectives. Confirmation bias causes people to favour input that aligns with their pre-existing views while disregarding contradictory evidence. Cognitive dissonance, the mental discomfort experienced when confronted with information that challenges one’s beliefs, may prompt individuals to devalue or ignore useful advice from others.
To truly benefit from the knowledge and experience of others, it is essential to develop cognitive flexibility, the ability to adapt one’s thinking, entertain different viewpoints, and revise beliefs based on new information. Developing this involves being open-minded, practicing active listening, and intentionally exposing oneself to varied opinions. By cultivating cognitive flexibility, individuals can overcome biases, extract greater value from collaboration, and ultimately reach more robust and confident decisions.
R4: Prioritize key issues
Individuals often experience the fear of missing out (FOMO) in decision making because they worry about overlooking important opportunities, information, or alternatives that might lead to a better outcome. This anxiety arises from the desire to make the perfect decision and the discomfort associated with uncertainty. FOMO can lead to indecision, prolonged analysis, and a tendency to try to cover every possible angle, which is both inefficient and mentally exhausting.
One effective way to conquer FOMO in decision making is by embracing the Pareto Principle, also known as the 80/20 rule. The Pareto Principle suggests that roughly 80% of results come from 20% of causes or actions. Recognizing and applying the Pareto Principle helps individuals overcome FOMO by providing a rational framework for prioritization. It encourages them to identify and concentrate on the critical elements that will drive the majority of results, rather than spreading themselves too thin in pursuit of completeness.
This focus reduces anxiety around missing out, since it is grounded in the understanding that not every detail or option is equally important. Instead, strategic attention to high-impact issues enables confident, timely decision making and ensures meaningful progress toward desired outcomes.
R5: Control the controllables
Dwelling excessively on high-impact issues can be counterproductive, especially when there is little or nothing that can be done to influence them. While it is natural to focus on significant problems due to their potential consequences, effective problem-solving requires not only considering the impact of various issues but also evaluating how difficult or feasible it is to address them. This balanced assessment helps ensure that time and resources are invested in areas where meaningful change is possible.
Individuals often fixate on high-impact issues that are beyond their control because such issues tend to dominate attention. This phenomenon can arise from anxiety, a sense of responsibility, or even organizational pressure to address critical challenges. However, spending excessive time and effort on problems that cannot be influenced leads to frustration, wasted resources, and a sense of helplessness. It also diverts attention from lower impact issues that are actionable and can yield tangible impacts.
The concept of “control the controllables” is a useful principle in this context. It encourages individuals to direct their efforts toward aspects of a problem that they can influence, rather than expending energy on uncontrollable factors. By identifying and prioritizing issues based on both impact and feasibility, decision-makers can focus their efforts and attention on where they will make a substantial difference.
In summary, it is important to balance the consideration of an issue’s impact with an honest assessment of whether it can be feasibly addressed. Avoid the temptation to dwell on factors beyond one’s control. Recognizing what is within one’s control, and acting on them, leads to more substantial and impactful outcomes.
R6: Move forward with “good enough”
In many real-world scenarios, it is important to appreciate that approximations and estimations can often be sufficient for effective decision making. Perfect information and exhaustive analysis are rarely available or practical. Approximations allow decision-makers to move forward based on reasonable assumptions, focusing on what is good enough rather than what is perfect. This pragmatic approach enables timely actions and helps maintain momentum in the face of uncertainty and ambiguity.
By contrast, insisting on full, thorough evaluations for every decision can be inefficient and distracting. The pursuit of exhaustive analysis requires significant time, effort, and resources that is often disproportionate to the benefits gained. In some cases, it can even be paralysing, leading to analysis paralysis, where decision-making grinds to a halt because decision makers are trapped in endless data collection, overthinking, and second-guessing. This delay can result in missed opportunities, increased costs, and reduced overall effectiveness.
Despite the practical value of approximations and estimations, individuals are often reluctant to base decisions on them. Several factors contribute to this hesitation. There is a common belief that only fully verified, precise information is trustworthy, leading to discomfort with uncertainty or the possibility of error. Many fear criticism or accountability if decisions based on estimates turn out to be incorrect, especially in organizational cultures that emphasize perfection or risk avoidance. Additionally, cognitive biases such as overconfidence in one’s ability to find the correct answer or an aversion to ambiguity may further reinforce the drive for exhaustive analysis.
This reluctance to act on reasonable approximations can hinder effective decision making, causing unnecessary delays and diverting attention from strategies that could deliver immediate value. Developing the ability to judge when an approximate answer is sufficient, and having the confidence to proceed, enables swift progress and prevents missed opportunities.
R7: Build uncertainty and ambiguity tolerance
Acquiring tolerance for uncertainty and ambiguity is a complex skill that cannot be gained passively. It requires frequent and intentional practice. Deliberate practice is a structured method for skill development, where individuals engage in activities specifically designed to improve performance, receive feedback, and make targeted adjustments. Rather than simply repeating a task, deliberate practice involves breaking down processes, identifying weaknesses, and systematically working on them.
The Dreyfus Skill Model provides a framework for understanding how people progress from novices to experts through stages of skill acquisition:
- Novice: Follows rules rigidly, uncomfortable with exceptions or ambiguity.
- Advanced Beginner: Begins to see patterns but still relies heavily on rules.
- Competent: Can manage complexity and make decisions, but needs conscious effort and planning.
- Proficient: Sees the big picture, intuitively recognizes important aspects, and adapts quickly.
- Expert: Operates fluidly by relying on deep intuition and experience.
Mastery in tolerating uncertainty and ambiguity emerges through deliberate cycles of intentional practice and reflection. Individuals must repeatedly confront uncertain situations, experiment with different strategies, and thoughtfully evaluate both successes and failures. This process helps them move beyond rigid reliance on rules, develop nuanced judgment, and ultimately thrive in ambiguous contexts.
In summary, developing mastery in tolerating uncertainty and ambiguity is not an innate trait but a skill built over time. Engaging in cycles of intentional practice and reflection is essential for progressing through the stages of expertise. This enables individuals to solve problems effectively by reducing anxiety and indecision when faced with unclear information or unpredictable outcomes.
Conclusion
Complex problems are rarely resolved quickly or easily. Overcoming them demands sustained effort, resilience in the face of setbacks, and a willingness to continually refine approaches and persist despite difficulties. Many individuals falter not because of a lack of effort, but because they struggle to cope with uncertainty and ambiguity.
A major contributor to this struggle is outcome bias: the tendency to evaluate decisions based solely on their results rather than the quality of the reasoning behind them. This approach is flawed, as fortunate outcomes can sometimes arise from poor decisions, such as a compulsive gambler who wins big despite reckless choices.
The following three principles can help individuals develop well-grounded confidence when deciding under uncertainty and ambiguity:
- Acknowledge the role of luck: Recognize that poor outcomes may simply result from chance, not necessarily from incompetence or poor judgment.
- Defend decisions with sound reasoning: Always be able to explain decisions with clear, logical, and understandable reasoning.
- Collaborate effectively: Working with others not only improves the quality of solutions but also enhances confidence in those solutions.
Three additional principles help individuals maintain focus and avoid wasted effort:
- Prioritize key issues: Addressing a few critical issues can often be sufficient to bring about significant results.
- Control the controllables: Focus efforts on what we can affect. Dwelling on factors beyond our control yields little benefit.
- Move forward with “good enough”: Excessive information gathering and analysis leads to waste, frustration, distraction, and missed opportunities.
By integrating these six principles with cycles of diligent practice and thoughtful reflection, individuals can cultivate true problem-solving mastery that enables them to tackle real-world challenges efficiently, effectively, and confidently.
While most people readily agree with the above principles, translating them into real-world practice can be challenging because of individual factors and the environments in which we operate. For a list of practical obstacles and strategies to overcome them, please refer to our Q&A section: Solving Complex Problems (Questions and Answers).