Outcome bias is a cognitive bias where people judge the quality of a decision based on its outcome, rather than on the reasoning and information that were available at the time the decision was made. The flaw in judging a decision based on outcomes is that outcomes are influenced by factors beyond the decision-maker’s control. Hence, we should focus on the rationale for the decisions made, rather than the outcomes which are beyond one’s control. Having the confidence to defend one’s decision allows one to proceed with the decision, avoid unnecessary delays and pointless cognitive load.
When I am not confident, I will consult a few colleagues to get their perspectives. At least I can say that I am not the only one who thought that this was a good decision. Here, we should be careful not to shift accountability to others because that will cause others to be reluctant to provide suggestions in the future. The purpose of consulting colleagues is merely to articulate the soundness of the decision.
One could also consider transferring the decision to someone else. There are cases where this is justified. Below are two examples:
- I get requests from different units in NUS to conduct training for external clients. When I am asked if we should provide hardcopy training material (or does the electronic version suffice), I leave the decision to the office in charge of the training since they are in the best position to make that decision (e.g., trade-off between costs and impression management).
- The department’s student club was planning an event, but faced significant challenges in selecting a venue as they were unsure how many people would eventually show up. I asked them to estimate the expected attendance, provide a basis for that forecast and recommend a venue based on that forecast. As the amount involved is small, I approved the decision without escalating it to my department head.
I wish to highlight that one should not be shy to escalate decisions to superiors when appropriate. Billionaire Richard Branson once commented that “If somebody offers you an amazing opportunity but you are not sure you can do it, say yes – then learn how to do it later!” [1]. The difference between Richard Branson and me is that he has a lot more resources. Therefore, he can absorb more risks than me. When employees do not escalate decisions beyond their paygrade, the organization misses out on amazing opportunities.
References
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/18/billionaire-richard-branson-reveals-why-he-always-says-yes.html